Elon Musk's "American Party" may face joint suppression from both parties.

Source: Global Times, @CCTV International News

On the afternoon of July 6 local time, in the early morning of July 7 Beijing time, U.S. President Trump, when asked how he viewed billionaire Elon Musk's announcement of a new political party, stated that Musk "can find some fun in it," but he thinks it is "absurd."

On July 5, local time, the conflict between Musk and the Trump administration over the recently enacted so-called "Great and Beautiful" tax and spending bill escalated again. That day, Musk announced the establishment of a new political party independent of both the Republican and Democratic parties - the "American Party," claiming that the party would represent "80% of the moderate voters" in American society, aiming to secure a seat in Congress through elections.

"Although Musk often jokes online, he seems quite serious about establishing the 'American Party,'" reported Forbes. On July 5, U.S. billionaire Musk posted on his social media platform X: "Today, the establishment of the 'American Party' gives you freedom." He also outlined specific goals: the 'American Party' will start small, focusing on securing 2 to 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House seats in next year's midterm elections. Musk stated that given the negligible seat difference between the Republican and Democratic parties in both chambers, this is enough to serve as a decisive vote on contentious bills, ensuring they reflect the true will of the people. The White House declined to comment. Fox News reported that some right-wing figures are concerned that the 'American Party' could split the conservative vote, helping Democrats to win. Mainstream U.S. media generally believe that Musk is unlikely to shake the two-party system that has dominated American political life for over 160 years, but a few media outlets argue that Musk's "cunning strategy" could become a tactic to determine the "kingmaker" in Congress.

Conservatives are concerned, investors oppose

July 4th is America’s "Independence Day". On that day, Musk initiated an online opinion survey on the X platform, asking netizens whether a "American Party" should be established to "liberate" the American people from the two-party system of alternating Democratic and Republican parties. As of the time he posted again on the 5th, over 1.249 million netizens had participated in the voting, with supporters accounting for 65.4% and opponents for 34.6%. Musk wrote: "The support to opposition ratio is 2:1, indicating that you want a new political party, and you will have a new political party." He stated that America is "going bankrupt due to waste and corruption."

In subsequent posts and replies to netizens' comments, Musk released more information. He cited the tactics of the ancient Greek general and politician Epaminondas against Sparta, stating that it is necessary to "concentrate forces in precise locations on the battlefield." Musk said, "The American party" will start small and compete for key positions in 2026 to shift the balance, rather than in 2028.

Fox News reported that some right-wing individuals expressed concerns in Musk's comment section. Conservative commentator Farage wrote: "Your third party will disproportionately siphon votes from the right, rather than the left, and give the left an easier path to power." Others urged Musk to focus on reforming the Republican Party from within, rather than forming a new party. The report stated that critics also pointed out that the polls on the X platform are informal, and voters are not limited to American voters.

Musk is also the founder and CEO of several companies, including Tesla. According to Reuters on the 6th, Azoria Partners CEO Fishback criticized Musk for forming a new party in a post on X, stating that it undermines shareholder confidence, and reiterated his support for President Trump. Fishback called for an immediate meeting of Tesla's board to demand Musk clarify his political ambitions and assess whether these ambitions align with his full-time obligations to Tesla.

The Times of India reports that Musk's "American Party" has unexpectedly gained two supporters: American billionaire Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci, who served in the first Trump administration. Both of them support Democratic candidate Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

"Prevent the emergence of third parties"

The website of CNBC believes that Elon Musk is the world's richest person, so his involvement in any political campaign could prove decisive and may have a significant impact on next year's midterm elections in the United States. The New York Times stated that this is a massive and challenging task that will test Musk's influence on American politics. A source revealed that Musk has been discussing his party plans with friends in recent days and what it would take to achieve this goal. The source said these discussions are more conceptual than practical.

"Only the wealthiest people in the world can make serious efforts to create a new American political party," said veteran election lawyer Brett Kappel to CBS News. However, the report also stated that Musk's idea "sounds easy, but is difficult to implement."

According to U.S. law, a qualified political party must undergo a complex certification process to be established. It is unclear whether Musk's "American Party" has initiated the relevant procedures. The BBC reports that Musk was born outside the United States and therefore is not eligible to run for U.S. president; he has not revealed who will lead the new party. On the 6th, Musk posted on X, "When and where should we hold the inaugural convention of the 'American Party'? It will be very interesting!"

CBS News outlines the numerous difficulties faced by the "American Party": the 50 states in the US have different legal rules regarding which parties can appear on the ballot, and these obstacles range "from very high to extremely high." In some cases, new parties need to submit a large number of signatures to get candidates on the ballot, and then must win a certain percentage of the votes during the election cycle. The report states that the efforts of the "American Party" will almost certainly face strong suppression from both the Democratic and Republican parties. Expert Capel said, "The laws in all states favor the two major parties and try to obstruct the emergence of a third party as much as possible." The process of creating a nationally ambitious party is also very time-consuming. Capel indicated that it is possible for Musk to get some favored candidates on the ballot in certain states, but establishing a brand new national party could take several years.

Become the "Kingmaker" of Congress?

The British "Independent" reported on the 5th that after Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party," a market research and data analysis company named "Quantitative Insights" conducted a poll showing that about 40% of Americans support Musk's formation of a new party to challenge the Democratic and Republican parties. 14% of voters said they are "very likely" to support the new party established by Musk or vote for it, 26% of voters said they are "somewhat likely" to support the party or vote for it, 22% of people said they are "unsure" about their attitude towards the party, and 38% of voters said it is "unlikely" that they would support Musk. The "Quantitative Insights" agency stated that this survey covered 1,000 registered voters and claimed a margin of error of 3%.

Next year's U.S. midterm elections will re-elect 1/3 of the Senate seats (a total of 100 seats) and all seats in the House of Representatives (a total of 435 seats). According to India's Wion News Network, although Musk's "American Party" sounds like a political show project, based on the "cunning strategy" shared by Musk, this could be a tactical design to become the "kingmaker" in Congress. The "American Party" does not need to win hundreds of seats; its candidates only need to participate in a few intense competitions, wedge into the weakest cracks of the current system, and they can maintain a balance of power in Congress.