Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Indicators show that $100,000 is the bottom, when will it start to rebound to new highs?

Since breaking the $100,000 mark on May 8, Bitcoin prices have maintained a daily closing above this psychological level. Although on June 22 the BTC price briefly fell to $98,300, this encryption asset is still close to breaking a new high of $111,800.

(Source: Trading View)

Although the fall to $100,000 only represents a 9% retracement, there are indicators suggesting that before Bitcoin experiences another parabolic rebound in the second half of 2025, the range between $100,000 and $110,000 may become the new bottom.

According to data from CryptoQuant, market activity is trending towards a confident long-term recovery, with on-chain data showing that outflows exceed inflows. The monthly outflow/inflow ratio has dropped to 0.9, reaching its highest level since the end of the 2022 bear market, which typically indicates strong demand.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

This ratio measures the balance of Bitcoin flowing in and out of exchanges and can serve as an indicator of market sentiment. A value below 1 indicates that investors are withdrawing assets from exchanges, typically reflecting accumulation behavior. Conversely, historically, a value above 1.05 usually coincides with increased selling pressure and local market tops.

It is worth noting that the recent fall is reminiscent of the levels in December 2022, when Bitcoin touched around $15,500 at a macro bottom. This turning point triggered a rebound that lasted for several months, reinforcing the theory that low ratios usually indicate a price reversal.

The current dominance of capital outflows and the increasing participation of long-term investors strongly indicate that a structural bottom is forming. If historical patterns hold true, Bitcoin may be approaching a critical demand-driven turning point, which could mark the beginning of the next bull market.

Bitcoin absorbed the selling pressure from short-term traders

Despite the continuous selling by DEX derivative contract sellers over the past 45 days, the price of Bitcoin remains stable in the range of 100,000 to 110,000 dollars. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) data is still negative, indicating that traders are under selling pressure in the short term. However, the price has not fallen further, showing that this capital is being absorbed, which means that funds are being accumulated.

This structural resilience may be strengthened by on-chain activities, which indicate the presence of institutional migration. As cryptocurrency analyst Maartunn pointed out, on Tuesday, over 19,400 BTC (worth approximately $2.11 billion) was transferred from dormant wallets to institutional addresses. These coins have not been used for 3 to 7 years, highlighting the significance of this transfer.

Such measures are usually not impulsive actions, but often involve strategic layouts, which means that when prices remain stable under significant pressure in the short term, large entities may intervene.

Continuous sell-offs, moderate corrections, and large-scale accumulation have strengthened the argument that Bitcoin is building a bottom around the $100,000 level. Although short-term volatility may persist, the support from investors (most likely institutional investors) may make a significant pullback below this level increasingly unlikely.