The Speculator's Reflection: The Debate Between Narrative and Technology

Our lives are filled with uncertainty, and our brains continuously construct probabilistic models of the environment. Our actions are based on predictions of outcomes rather than certainties.

Taking skiing as an example, the best slope is 35°-40°, which is also a high avalanche risk area. The guide will assess factors such as snow conditions and weather to determine the avalanche risk. In daily life, choosing between the elevator or stairs is a similar probability calculation.

Humans cannot perfectly predict the future; we are risking our lives every moment. This reflects the essence of life and makes living full of fun.

Our interpretation of behavior constitutes risk perception, known as "narrative." As social animals, narratives mainly come from collective wisdom. The most influential stories are often those that are widely accepted by everyone.

Narratives are constructed from objective facts and everyday conversations. While facts are important, it is difficult for individuals to obtain precise statistical data. Therefore, we rely on the judgments of others, especially professionals and public consensus.

Taking the risk of an avalanche as an example, we trust the experience and training system of the guide. Regarding elevator safety, we believe in the expertise of engineers and the fact that it is universally used. Our judgment of risk depends on the perception of facts and the opinions of others, rather than purely on technical details.

The same is true in the cryptocurrency space. When evaluating a new project, we often rely on factors such as the reputation of advisors and the background of the team, rather than a deep understanding of the technical details. In fact, the power of storytelling is more important than the technology itself.

As investors, our job is to identify the narratives with the most potential. A low-probability event in a phase of explosive growth may hold more investment value than a high-probability event that is already a foregone conclusion. Macroeconomic narratives focus on industry trends, while micro narratives focus on project advantages.

The importance of a project's actual performance varies at different stages. In the early stage, even mediocre results may be seen as breakthroughs; in the mature stage, genuine revolutionary progress is needed to meet expectations.

In the future, I will delve into several specific projects and their related narratives, including the development of DEX, ETH staking derivatives, cross-chain technology, and other hot topics. My goal is to spark widespread discussion, whether positive or negative.

Currently, the market is focused on Bitcoin ETFs and fiat currency devaluation, which may drive BTC and ETH prices to new highs. However, my attention has shifted to other highly potential crypto assets, seeking investment opportunities beyond mainstream coins.