Chainlink Price Prediction: Is LINK About to Break the $17.39 Key Resistance Level? On-chain Indicators Reveal Overheating Risks and Big Pump Opportunities

🔥 Long positions structure consolidation: LINK strongly recovers middle band support

After successfully reclaiming the $15.90 mid-level watershed, LINK continues to build higher lows and highs, currently trading at $16.59, approaching the $17.39 resistance wall that has repeatedly suppressed upward momentum. Historical data shows that there is a dense area of trapped positions in this region, and whether it can break through this time will determine the direction of the short-term trend.

📈 Strong spot demand: 90-day buying advantage supports the continuation of the rebound.

On-chain monitoring shows that the Taker buy volume advantage indicator continues to benefit long positions: the spot Taker CVD data shows a positive tilt over 90 days, indicating that aggressive buyers in the spot market are continuously suppressing sell orders. If coupled with a surge in overall exchange activity, it will significantly increase the success rate of breakouts.

⚠️ On-chain alert: MVRV and NVT dual indicators have flashed a hot warning.

• MVRV ratio rises to 37.87%: Over 1/3 of holding addresses have entered the profit zone, historical similar levels easily trigger local tops.
• NVT Ratio Soars Abnormally: The price is severely diverging from network utility, reflecting that the current uptrend contains speculative bubbles.

These two on-chain indicators are simultaneously sending warning signals; one should beware of the risk of a technical pullback when chasing price increases.

💸 Funding rate turns positive: Derivatives sentiment shifts but conceals a liquidation crisis

After a sustained negative value, the funding rate of the LINK perpetual contract has turned positive for the first time, indicating that traders are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions. However, the bullish sentiment in derivatives combined with stagnant prices could create a deadly combination—there is a high leverage long liquidation zone below $17.50, and a failure to break through will trigger a chain liquidation.

🌪️ Open interest surges: 8.47% increase boosts volatility expectations

The open contracts in the last 24 hours (OI) surged by 8.47% to $843 million. Although the sudden increase in derivatives participation has boosted the rise, the CEX liquidation heatmap shows a liquidation wall of $56 million below the $17 level. Attempting to break through may trigger significant price volatility.

💎 Key conclusion: Breakthrough requires meeting three major conditions

1️⃣ Spot trading volume expanded to over 150% of the monthly average. The NVT ratio has fallen below 25, eliminating the bubble warning. The daily line must stand firm at $17.39 support for 3 consecutive hours. If the above conditions are met, LINK may open an upward space at $19.80, otherwise it may fall back to the $15.20 neck line area.

Conclusion Chainlink's current breakout combines technical advantages and on-chain risks, and cryptocurrency investors should focus on the price momentum at $17.39 and the changes in the large liquidation patterns on CEX. A robust strategy suggests gradually building positions after confirming a breakout, to guard against spike events caused by high leverage in derivatives. For ongoing analysis of LINK price trends, please pay attention to subsequent on-chain data reports.