Bitcoin Spot ETF and Outlook for the 2024 Bull Run

This article predicts the timeline for the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF and the subsequent start of the bull run, and explores the possible market reactions after the ETF approval.

1. ETF Launch Time Prediction with Bull Run

possible bull run scenario

Based on historical experience, the expected scenario is as follows:

1. January 2024: Bitcoin Spot ETF application approved
2. April 2024: Bitcoin Spot ETF begins to take effect
3. July 2024: Bitcoin bull run officially starts
4. September 2024: The Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle

The bull run is expected to officially start around July, mainly considering the usual 2-3 month adjustment period after the halving, as well as factors such as macro market interest rate cut expectations.

Review of the starting point of the bull run in 2020

Important milestones of the bull run in 2020:

• November 2019: A certain trust fund submitted a registration application.
• January 2020: The trust fund was approved for registration.
• April 2020: The trust fund officially came into effect, rapidly expanding in scale.
• 2020: This bull run brought approximately $10 billion in incremental funds to the crypto market.

The potential starting point and capital scale of this bull run

Based on the experience of the last round, it is expected:

• The ETF will bring hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity to the market.
• The total market value has increased to at least a trillion level.
• The total market value of crypto assets is expected to exceed that of the highest valued company in the world.

Three Necessary Conditions for a Bull Run to Start

1. Spot Bitcoin ETF approved
2. Bitcoin Halving
3. The monetary policy has shifted to easing, and market liquidity is abundant.

2. Analysis of Market Reaction After ETF Approval

Based on the historical experience of gold ETFs, the market for Bitcoin ETFs may be judged as follows:

1. Market expectations continue to heat up before ETF approval.
2. After the ETF is approved, there will still be a slight increase in the short term.
3. Shortly after the ETF starts trading, a significant pullback may occur, potentially falling below the price at which the ETF was previously offered.

However, the ETF is unlikely to directly trigger a major bull run. The main reasons include:

• The global economy has not yet fully recovered.
• The monetary policy is still in a tight state.
• Funds are difficult to sustain large-scale inflows.

The ETF, by influencing market sentiment and on-site funds more, makes it difficult to expect the crypto market to independently emerge from a long-term bull run.

3. Conclusion

The approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF will be an important milestone, but it is not sufficient to independently trigger a major bull run. The true starting point of a bull run still requires the combined effects of multiple conditions, such as improvements in the macroeconomic environment and a shift in monetary policy.

In the coming year, we will witness together the Bitcoin Spot ETF passing through this historic moment, as well as the possible arrival of a new bull run. Let's stay tuned and watch for market changes.