Crypto market overview for the week (May 27 to June 2)

Market Observation

macro liquidity

Recently, there are signs of improvement in currency liquidity. However, the path of interest rate cuts by central banks in Europe and the United States still faces challenges, and market expectations for rate cuts have cooled, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. The U.S. stock market has reached new highs driven by tech giants, with one tech company's market value expected to surpass Apple, becoming the world's largest. In contrast, the overall performance of the crypto market has been relatively weak, continuing to experience fluctuations and consolidation.

full market行情

This week, Bitcoin has shown a fluctuating downward trend, with reports that a large wallet transferred approximately $10 billion worth of Bitcoin, possibly related to creditor compensation in October. The main market focus is on the Meme coin sector, with funds gradually spreading from the Ethereum ecosystem to other public chains' fully circulated Meme coins.

Several projects worth paying attention to include:

1. A game-type Meme coin of a certain ecosystem, characterized by full circulation, which may be used as fuel fees for the ecosystem's wallet in the future.

2. A representative project of the Bitcoin Rune ecosystem, fully circulating airdrop, with a market value close to the original Rune leader.

3. A concept coin related to the US elections, notable for making charitable donations in the name of a certain political figure to expand its influence.

Bitcoin market analysis

1. On-chain data

Long-term investors have started accumulating Bitcoin again for the first time in six months, indicating a reduction in selling pressure from long-term holders. The US spot ETF has turned positive again after four consecutive weeks of net outflows.

The market capitalization of stablecoins has decreased slightly by 1%, and the overall trend of capital inflow has slowed down.

Institutional funds have shown a net inflow for three consecutive weeks, with a total inflow of 15 billion USD so far this year. Notably, the inflow of funds into Ethereum has reached its highest level since March, which may indicate the market's anticipation of the upcoming approval of related spot ETFs in the United States.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is currently at 2.4, in the middle stage. When this indicator is greater than 6, it indicates that the market is in the top range, while a value less than 2 indicates that it is in the bottom range.

2. Futures Market

The funding rate for futures in this cycle has slightly decreased. Typically, a rate of 0.05-0.1% indicates that there is a lot of long leverage, which may suggest a short-term market top; a rate of -0.1-0% indicates that there is a lot of short leverage, which may suggest a short-term market bottom.

The Bitcoin futures open interest has remained basically flat this week.

The futures long-short ratio is 1.6, indicating that market sentiment is leaning towards optimism. Generally, this indicator below 0.7 signifies market panic, while above 2.0 indicates market greed.

3. Spot Market

Bitcoin is currently in a phase of wide fluctuations, with the market seemingly waiting for the Federal Reserve's possible interest rate cuts after September to release liquidity. Bitcoin's dominance in the market has decreased, and the altcoin season is arriving. Due to the high overall valuations of tokens supported by some investment institutions and a large amount of unlocking, fully circulating Meme coins have become the main focus of the market.

Market Data

total locked value of public chains

This week's total locked value (TVL) is $106.8 billion, which is a slight increase of $500 million from last week, an increase of about 0.5%.

TVL distribution of various public chains

Despite a decline in TVL for most mainstream public chains this week, certain public chains such as Ethereum, a certain Layer 1 public chain, and two emerging public chains have achieved over 30% growth in the past month, indicating that market sentiment remains active. Notably, a certain Layer 2 solution performed outstandingly this week, rising by 29%, with a total TVL approaching 600 million USD.

NFT market data

This week, the floor prices of blue-chip projects in the NFT market have generally declined, with the overall market continuing its downward trend. Most well-known projects such as BAYC and MAYC have seen a drop of about 5-10%, while some projects like Pixelmon and Pandora have experienced a crash of 40-50%. Only a few projects, such as Azuki and CryptoPunks, have seen a slight increase.

Despite the significant drop in floor prices of blue-chip projects leading to a doubling of trading volume in the NFT market, the number of first-time and repeat buyers has not rebounded significantly. Overall, the NFT market seems to have hit rock bottom, with market sentiment approaching despair.