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The latest released UK employment data reveals the challenges facing the country's economy. In July, the UK lost 8,000 jobs, marking a trend of contraction in the labor market for several consecutive months, highlighting the current weak state of the economy.
Morgan Stanley economist Bruna Skarica pointed out that the current employment data situation may affect the Bank of England's decision on interest rate cuts. Although the job market shows an imbalance between supply and demand - with an increase in job seekers and a decrease in available positions - the central bank's more pressing issue is the continued rise in prices, particularly the surge in food prices, which has led to widespread complaints from the public about the high cost of living.
Analysis by the financial data company LSEG shows that the market generally expects the Bank of England may not consider lowering interest rates until December, with a probability of about 68%. In other words, there is still a significant chance that there will be no rate cuts before the end of the year. Currently, the British public is facing multiple pressures from slow wage growth, rapidly rising prices, and a scarcity of job opportunities. The central bank is in a dilemma, hoping to stimulate the economy through rate cuts while also fearing that such a move could exacerbate inflation.
The current state of the UK economy is like an unbalanced scale, with a weak job market on one side and persistently high inflation on the other. The general public is most concerned about when the cost of living will decrease and whether job prospects will improve. However, given the current situation, it is difficult to see any significant improvement in the short term. Economic experts generally believe that only after inflation is effectively controlled can the central bank consider taking more aggressive interest rate cut measures.
In this economic environment, UK policymakers face the daunting task of finding a balance between promoting employment and curbing inflation. At the same time, businesses and individuals also need to adapt to this challenging economic situation and prepare for a potentially prolonged period of economic adjustment.