Bitcoin’s Surge Is Fuelled by Deep, Durable Forces

By Nigel Green

Bitcoin has pushed into record territory again, climbing beyond $123,000 this week and overtaking its July high. The momentum behind this move is not fleeting.

It’s coming from institutional capital on a scale we’ve never seen before, corporate treasuries that are now holding Bitcoin as a reserve, policy moves in Washington that open new channels for demand, and nation states that are already in profit on their holdings.

These forces together make a compelling case for why my $150,000 target for the end of this year remains intact.

Year-to-date, Bitcoin has advanced more than 31% and sits roughly 60% above the levels we saw in April. The rise has been sharp, but it has also been underpinned by significant developments in market infrastructure and adoption that go well beyond price charts.

Institutional participation through spot Bitcoin ETFs has transformed the demand profile.

These vehicles are trading at volumes that, in some cases, outpace flagship equity ETFs. BlackRock’s IBIT, for example, recorded more than $3.7 billion in turnover in a single day this week, while Fidelity’s FBTC saw more than half a billion dollars change hands. The consistent liquidity in these funds is an unmistakable signal of sustained institutional commitment.

Corporations are now active players in this market too.

Strategy, the Bitcoin-focused company led by Michael Saylor, disclosed this week that its reserves have reached a valuation of $77.2 billion — up by over $35 billion from its high in 2024. That’s not a speculative gamble; it’s a deliberate, long-term allocation that has delivered outsized value.

Sovereign participation is proving its worth as well. El Salvador’s Bitcoin portfolio is now showing an unrealised profit exceeding $468 million on an initial $300.5 million investment. That kind of gain, realised without a sale, reinforces the credibility of Bitcoin as an asset class for governments, not just individuals and companies.

On the policy front, the direction is shifting. Last week, President Donald Trump signed an executive order tasking the Labor Department with assessing whether 401(k) retirement plans could hold cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets. If implemented, this would be a step-change in access — bringing long-horizon retirement savings into the market.

There will, of course, be periods when the market takes a breath. Pullbacks and profit-taking are natural parts of any strong rally. I expect them, but I don’t see them changing the long-term trajectory. The key drivers — institutional flows, corporate allocations, sovereign adoption, and policy support — remain firmly in place.

Bitcoin’s capped supply is a defining feature in this outlook. With new issuance fixed, every new buyer reduces the amount available to others.

This effect is magnified when the buyers are large-scale investors, public companies, and governments — entities that tend to hold for years, not months. It’s why we’re seeing each dip quickly met with sizeable new buying, locking away even more of the available supply.

The macroeconomic climate is another tailwind. With expectations building for looser monetary policy, the appeal of assets that can hold value outside traditional currency systems is increasing. Bitcoin is now firmly part of that conversation, drawing interest from those looking for a hedge against the erosion of purchasing power.

We’ve reached a point where multiple currents are moving in the same direction: policy that is more permissive, liquidity that is deep and committed, and adoption that cuts across sectors and borders. The interaction of these factors is powerful.

While the path to $150,000 is unlikely to be smooth, I believe it’s well within reach. The volatility that unnerves some market watchers is, in reality, an expected feature of a maturing asset class still absorbing large flows of capital. For those with a longer view, these fluctuations often present opportunities rather than obstacles.

With Bitcoin now within sight of $125,000, the immediate question is whether the next move higher comes within days or weeks. I see that as a short-term detail. The bigger picture is that the forces propelling this rally are deep, durable, and accelerating.

In my view, Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a broader re-pricing that reflects its expanding role in the global financial system. The buyers in this market are strategic, the fundamentals are strengthening, and the momentum is being sustained by multiple, interconnected sources of demand. That’s why I believe that $150,000 is not just a target, but an increasingly likely milestone before year-end.