Many investors have a common misconception that a rate cut by the Fed will inevitably trigger a bull run in the crypto assets market. However, a closer examination of past Bitcoin bull runs reveals that this relationship is not so straightforward.

In 2017, the price of Bitcoin soared to $19,800, coinciding with the Fed's interest rate hike cycle of 1.25%-1.50%. In November 2021, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $69,000, while interest rates had long been maintained at near-zero levels, with rate cuts having begun back in March 2020.

In 2023, Bitcoin rebounded to around $73,000, during a rate hike cycle. In 2024, Bitcoin rose from $74,000 to $123,000 while interest rates remained unchanged.

These data reveal an interesting phenomenon: expectations of interest rate cuts may more easily stimulate the market, but actual rate cuts do not necessarily trigger a bull run immediately. On the contrary, whether interest rates are high or low, as long as they remain stable, the market seems more likely to experience an increase.

So, what factors truly drove the bull run of Crypto Assets? From an industry perspective, the core driving force of a bull run is often the explosive growth of application scenarios. For example, the rise of the Ethereum ecosystem in 2017, the boom of NFTs and GameFi in 2021, as well as the entry of institutional investors and expectations for ETFs.

On the other hand, from a macroeconomic perspective, interest rate cuts are usually measures taken to respond to economic downturns, aimed at reducing the cost of liabilities. In this environment, although it may be difficult to directly stimulate investment in Crypto Assets, the decline in returns from traditional investments may lead some existing funds to shift towards higher-risk asset classes.

Therefore, the bull run of Crypto Assets usually begins ahead of the interest rate cut cycle or appears during the stabilization phase after the interest rate cuts. This essentially reflects the market's expectations for future economic and policy directions.

Investors should recognize that the trends in the Crypto Assets market are the result of multiple factors working together and cannot be simply tied to a single economic indicator. When formulating investment strategies, it is necessary to comprehensively consider various factors such as technological innovation, market sentiment, and the regulatory environment, rather than solely relying on changes in interest rate policies.