#美联储降息预期# Looking back, the policy changes of the Fed have always stirred the nerves of the market. Trump has once again called for interest rate cuts, reminding me of the rate cut cycle in 2019. At that time, the market was also eagerly anticipating, but ultimately the Fed's actions were slower and more cautious than expected. This time is probably no exception.

Historically, the Fed's decisions often lag behind economic conditions, which is also the reason for Trump's complaint of "too late." However, from the central bank's perspective, excessive easing may lay the groundwork for inflation risks, and they must weigh the pros and cons. The quantitative easing policies after the 2008 financial crisis stabilized the market in the short term, but also set the stage for later inflation.

As for Trump's threat of a lawsuit, it reminds me of President Nixon's pressure on then-Fed Chairman Burns in the late 1960s. History is always remarkably similar. However, regardless of the political pressure, the independence of the Fed remains the cornerstone of market confidence.

For investors, rather than speculating on the timing of interest rate cuts, it is better to focus on changes in the economic fundamentals. After all, interest rates are just a tool; the economy is what truly matters. Looking back at past cycles, those investors who can accurately grasp the turning points of the economy often stand out amidst market fluctuations.