Bitcoin retreats 8% from the $124,000 high: market game behind whale sell-off and institutional layout | BTC price prediction

Bitcoin has recently fallen over 8% from its historical high of $124,000, currently reported at $113,867. On-chain data shows that mainstream CEXs are experiencing a whale coordinated selling pattern, with a surge in deposits in the range of 100-1,000 BTC. This article analyzes whale movements, institutional holdings, and market indicators in three dimensions to interpret the reasons for the short-term pullback and predict key support levels, providing strategic references for encryption investors.

[Bitcoin Price Pullback and Whale Selling Pattern] Bitcoin has fallen from last week's historical high of $124,000, with a recent decline of over 8%, currently trading around $113,867, and a seven-day drop of 6.3%. On-chain analyst Arab Chain pointed out that this round of decline is closely related to the coordinated selling by whales on major CEXs. Data shows that whales are employing a strategy of transferring in batches of 100-1,000 BTC to major CEXs, distributing their profits in the resistance range of $118,000-$120,000, thereby locking in profits while avoiding severe market impact.

[Whale Capital Flow and Market Stress Test] Analysis indicates that when Bitcoin fell to $112,500, it coincided with a peak in inflows from Whales into mainstream CEX. These transactions were not individual large transfers, but rather a series of medium-sized deposits over several days, forming a "coordinated distribution pattern." Despite the 30-day cumulative Whale inflow remaining stable at $4.8 billion, indicating that the long-term holding trend has not changed, each short-term rebound has faced new deposit pressure. If buying interest cannot effectively follow up, Bitcoin may further test the $110,000 support area.

[Institutional Holdings and Market Complexity] Apart from whale activities, institutions also influence the demand pattern through over-the-counter (OTC) dollar-cost averaging (DCA) and on-chain settlement. CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech emphasizes the need to comprehensively assess market sentiment by combining ETF fund flows, the delta of spot cumulative trading volume (CVD), and premium indicators from exchanges like Coinbase. The current market shows a contradictory situation of short-term whale selling pressure and long-term institutional accumulation, and the outcome of this game between the two will determine whether Bitcoin can stabilize or undergo a deeper pullback.

[Conclusion] Bitcoin is facing short-term selling pressure from whale coordination, with key support looking at the $110,000 level. Investors need to closely monitor exchange deposit data, ETF fund flows, and changes in institutional OTC activities. Despite the technical pressure, the long-term accumulation basis remains intact, and the market may enter a high-level consolidation phase. It is recommended that encryption users adjust their position strategies dynamically based on on-chain indicators and macroeconomic conditions.