The Encryption Order of the Trump Era: Strategic Reserves and Power Games

Introduction

For Trump, the world is like a giant reality show of "The Apprentice." Within a month of taking office, many, from internal staff to foreign leaders, have received termination letters stating "You're fired." In the "show" over the next four years, how will cryptocurrency as a key "guest" successfully advance? Perhaps we should start by understanding this "boss."

1. The market likes surprises, but the rhythm must be under control.

Trump's autobiography discusses "controlling the rhythm" and "creating surprises," which form the core of his negotiation philosophy. The intertwined use of these two strategies not only established his early business empire but also set the tone for his later political maneuvers.

Looking back at classic cases from Trump’s early business years, starting with the 1976 New York Hyatt Hotel project, he demonstrated absolute control over the rhythm of negotiations. The 1985 Atlantic City casino acquisition case was a peak interpretation of his "raid strategy." This highly aggressive negotiation strategy is not only his advocated "deal-making rule," but also his controversial "destructive survival tactic."

Recently, during the US-Ukraine bilateral talks held at the White House on February 28, Zelensky and Trump showcased Trump's usual strategies. On the eve of the talks, a four-point consensus was reached with Russia, and during the talks, a sky-high repayment demand was proposed, ultimately leading to the collapse of negotiations. These actions reflect Trump's negotiating principles: setting targets far above expectations, using various methods to pressure opponents, being unpredictable to make it difficult for opponents to decipher his moves, and effectively utilizing the media to amplify the impact of events.

From the counterattacks of multiple countries, the way to respond to this strategy seems quite simple: refuse to trade, refuse to negotiate.

2. Strategic Reserves

After the US-Ukraine talks, Trump announced on social media that XRP, SOL, and ADA would be included in the "encryption strategic reserve," while emphasizing that ETH and BTC remain core. Following the release of the news, the market experienced a surge. However, the reaction within the community to these two "firefighting" tweets was notably different from the past, with even suspicions of insider trading emerging.

Trump suddenly announced that a basket of cryptocurrencies reserves aligns with his usual style, but the true purpose is difficult to discern. Combined with his "trading rules", possible objectives include:

1. Promote the realization of BTC as a strategic reserve to attract more countries to buy BTC, while the United States maintains its dominance.
2. Use the presidential identity to continuously create momentum for the "strategic reserve" expectations, controlling the market trends.
3. Strive for influence and rights for the family in the encryption field.
4. A complex network of interests may be hidden behind the "White House Select".
5. Seek sources of strategic reserve funding, possibly considering the use of seized encryption or issuing related bonds.
6. There may be plans to promote the large-scale application of the above public blockchain in various fields, using the public blockchain token as "material reserves".

3. Destructive Survival

Trump's decision-making style is heavily influenced by his father, defining interpersonal relationships as a "zero-sum game," which has formed a competitive mentality of "demonizing" opponents. Whether in cases of confrontation in the realm of business diplomacy or the Capitol incident after the 2020 election loss, it highlights his survival rules centered on attack, destruction, and suppression.

While cryptocurrency supporters often shout "Long live the crypto president", it is important to be cautious, as we may not be on the same front. The principles of "America First" and "Family First" may permeate his policies on encryption. Although it is unclear how Trump will respond to non-American and non-family projects, he may ensure "America First" and "Family First" in the on-chain world in a manner similar to a tariff war.

Current visible trends include:

1. Prioritize support for U.S. projects through ETFs and strategic reserves.
2. American projects may enjoy preferential tax rates, while unpopular projects may face tax increases.
3. Family projects may receive privileges such as regulatory sandboxes and targeted support.

In the future, Trump may take more measures to ensure the "Americanization" of encryption. In the face of this conspiracy, we either choose alliances or choose to "refuse to trade."

4. Insights from DOGE

Trump's friend Musk pushed Dogecoin to its peak during the bull market in 2021. This joke coin, which originated from an internet meme, was initially intended to mock the speculative nature of the encryption market, but under Musk's influence, it became one of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization globally.

This phenomenon reflects that the encryption world is replaying the fate trajectory of its objects of resistance. Bitcoin, once seen as "the sharp blade against centralization," may now become a new vehicle for American hegemony. The flow of funds closely follows Trump’s statements, and the vitality of cryptocurrencies seems to be fading. When the rebels become part of the establishment, cryptocurrencies have also failed to escape the narrative loop of "the dragon-slaying youth ultimately becoming the evil dragon."

5. Double-edged Sword

Putting aside personal interests, Trump is indeed a legendary figure in the history of American politics and business, and he might drive BTC to new heights. However, under the interference of power and high regulation, innovation in the encryption currency field may be restricted. The struggle for attention and power is rampant in the blockchain world, as Ethereum founder Vitalik has said, overly emphasizing speculative and gambling-oriented projects may not benefit the long-term development of the industry.

In the next four years, the so-called best projects may only appear in Trump's tweets. The encryption policies advocated by Trump are a double-edged sword, as cryptocurrencies may split into various circles such as traditional and American styles, and the past public chain wars may continue on a larger scale. Under Trump's strong strategy and immense influence, this game may be quite fierce, but it may also be the necessary growing pains for the cryptocurrency industry to break out of its cocoon and be reborn.