Crypto Market Weekly Report: BTC Staggers and Rebounds, PumpSwap Rises Unconventionally

Macroeconomic Market Overview

Recently, the US stock market has experienced one of the most severe adjustments since the pandemic. Expectations for a slowdown in US tariff policies have boosted market sentiment, and signs of a bottom in the US stock market are beginning to emerge. The crypto market has subsequently seen a turbulent rebound.

Overall Market Trends

This week, Bitcoin has experienced a volatile rebound, with a large institutional investor increasing their BTC holdings by $600 million. The market is mainly focused on the BSC and SOL ecosystems. The top five tokens with the largest gains are ZETA, LAYER, FARTCOIN, MEW, and BEAM, with increases between 40% and 60%. The tokens with the largest declines include NTGL, PI, PLUME, and others.

It is worth noting that large market makers are becoming active again in the SOL ecosystem, and there may be demand for over-the-counter trading in the near future. A liquidity incentive program worth $100 million has been launched on the BSC chain, driving up related projects. At the same time, a certain on-chain exchange urgently delisted due to a suspected market maker attack, triggering a trust crisis and reflecting the risk that small-cap token contracts can be easily manipulated.

On-chain Data Analysis

The new demand for BTC continues to weaken, and most short-term investors are in a state of loss. The supply from long-term holders has started to rebound. Currently, short-term holders hold 40% of the wealth, down from the peak of 50% at the beginning of 2025, but still significantly lower than the historical bull market highs of 70-90%. This may be related to the large institutional investment in ETFs during this round.

The market capitalization of stablecoins has significantly decreased, indicating a tendency for funds to seek safety. Institutional funds have turned optimistic, ending a continuous outflow of funds for 5 weeks.

The MVRV-Z Score indicator is currently at 2.0, close to the mid-level of the market. This indicator is in the top range when it is greater than 6, and in the bottom range when it is less than 2.

Derivatives Market

The futures long-short ratio is 1.1, indicating that market sentiment is at a normal level. The open interest in Bitcoin futures has slightly decreased, reflecting a lack of clear direction in the market. The funding rate remains low at 0.01%.

Spot Market

Bitcoin has seen a rebound this week. The market volatility has significantly decreased, entering a consolidation phase after the crash. Various trading platforms are accelerating the launch of venture capital-supported token projects.

Public Chain Ecosystem Development

BTC ecosystem

A large institutional investor continues to increase its holdings of nearly 7,000 BTC and has launched perpetual preferred shares for trading on Nasdaq, demonstrating its strategic determination to maximize its BTC holdings. As of March 23, the total amount of BTC held by the institution has reached 506,137 coins, with a cumulative purchase cost of approximately $33.7 billion and an average holding cost of $66,608.

ETH ecosystem

The Ethereum Pectra upgrade has been successfully launched on the new Hoodi testnet. This upgrade will introduce EIP-7702, enabling multi-currency payment of gas fees. If the testing goes smoothly, Pectra is expected to go live on the mainnet in about 30 days.

Celo has successfully migrated to the Ethereum Layer 2 network, utilizing Optimism's OP Stack technology. This migration enhances Celo's security, scalability, and interoperability, reducing the block generation time from 5 seconds to 1 second, while maintaining ultra-low transaction fees.

The TVL of the ETH ecosystem reached 46.288b, an increase of 1.53% compared to last week.

TON ecosystem

The fully chain-compatible HiBit DEX has landed in the TON ecosystem and is expected to play an important role in connecting the TON ecosystem with other blockchain networks. HiBit DEX combines the advantages of centralized and decentralized exchanges, supporting efficient trading and permissionless token issuance.

The TON DeFi lock-up volume reached 170.3m, an increase of 14.99%.

SOL ecosystem

Pump.fun launched its native DEX PumpSwap, capturing 21% of the Solana ecosystem DEX market share within a week, with a trading volume reaching $1.5 billion. PumpSwap uses the AMM model, featuring instant migration and zero migration fees. This development may further squeeze Raydium's market space.

The DeFi TVL of the SOL ecosystem is 6.809b, a slight decrease of 0.24% compared to last week.